The recent Local Government and Police and Crime Commissioners elections were a disaster for the Conservative Party as predicted by many. While I was not quite brave enough to predict the result of the London Mayoral race in my previous blog post, it always seemed unlikely a hard-right candidate sympathetic to Donald Trump would win in London.
The move to adopt First Past the Post in all local elections was designed to help the Conservatives in places like London. In reality, it meant many Lib Dem and Labour voters tactically supported Sadiq.
More surprisingly, perhaps, was the defeat of Andy Street as West Midlands Mayor. Unlike Susan Hall in London, Andy was gracious in defeat wishing his successor all the best. The West Midlands result was close, reflecting that most would acknowledge Andy was a competent Mayor and his loss was due to a national swing against the Tories. Unfortunately, local elections in the UK turn into referendums on the performance of party performance nationally. In 2024, the Conservative and Unionist Party are deeply unpopular.
This may explain why two Conservative MPs have crossed the floor to Labour in the last month. The first Dr Dan Poulter, a former Conservative Health Minister crossed the floor to join Labour in late April citing frustration at the Government’s management of the NHS. More controversially, Dover MP and former member of the pro-Brexit European Research Group Natalie Elphicke Crossed the floor immediately before the Prime Minister’s question time on Wednesday immediately following the local elections.
My view is that if an MP is elected to parliament representing a party if they then resign their membership of said party, they should resign from parliament. In this case, neither MP intended to run at the next general election, but no longer felt they could remain on the Tory benches. In UK politics there is a tradition of MPs crossing the floor and joining different parties, including former UK PM who in his early career left the Tories and joined the Tories in 1904, only to cross back to the Tories in 1924. While I understand the tradition and also the message it sends, I still hold the view that if you are elected to represent a party in parliament, on resigning party membership voters should be allowed to decide your replacement. That said, there is little point in holding two more by-elections this close to a general election.
While I do not pick elections, I think it is safe to make this point. If Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are holding on for a dramatic change in polling numbers, they are unlikely to see this happen. On current polling, even a 7% swing in their favour would not be enough to stop them from losing the election. Labour should not be complacent, but it is increasingly obvious that the voter coalition that helped the Conservatives win in 2019 has collapsed. That Britain will probably have to wait a further six months for this Government to go to the country is depressing for all concerned. For those who want a fresh start, it feels like the Government is delaying the inevitable. For Tory MPs standing down, who will be sick of trying to defend the indefensible when meeting their constituents, this will be a long and depressing few months.
Little will be achieved in these next few months. Global leaders watch UK media and are fully aware this is a dying government. Any major international deals on trade are unlikely to progress over the next few months. Instead, negotiators will be waiting until after the election to deal with Rishi’s successor.
The local election results and the recent Tory defections to Labour are further signs of a government in its dying days. Any hope of a 1992 surprise victory must be waning fast even in the most optimistic Conservative supporter.
I will brave one prediction, the UK election is likely to be in November this year. The Conservatives are unlikely to be rewarded for waiting it out. Until then the UK will be stuck in this hurry-up and wait limbo.
Nick Kelly 